STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Gerges: Israel's alleged involvement changes the dynamics of Syrian struggle
- Iran stated it would aid Syria if it is attacked by Israel, but it is unlikely it would retaliate directly
- A political solution will put an end to the bloodshed and prevent a region-wide conflict, he says
Editor's note: Fawaz A. Gerges a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics where he directs the Middle East Centre.
(CNN) -- What Syria asserts is Israel's launch of two air strikes on Damascus last week presents a marked and dangerous escalation of that country's involvement in the Syrian war.
Israel's intervention --
if confirmed -- also shows how the conflict has mutated from a political
uprising to an internal armed struggle, and now to a regional war by
proxy fiercely fought on Syria's killing fields. (Israel has a policy of
refusing to confirm or deny attacks attributed to its military.)
The confrontation in Syria has become more complex, more perilous, and more difficult to resolve.
The Syrian struggle has
not only spread into Syria's neighbors, like Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and
Turkey -- but has also become a battlefield wherein Israel and Iran are
challenging each other.
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There is also a fierce
geostrategic rivalry unfolding in Syria between Sunni-dominant Saudi
Arabia and Shiite Iran, a rivalry invested and fuelled with
sectarianism.
A real danger exists that
this complex conflict in Syria could escalate into a region-wide battle
involving Syria's major allies -- Iran and Hezbollah, and Israel, other
regional powers, and the Western states.
Israel's alleged
deepening involvement in the conflict also changes the dynamics of the
political struggle in Syria in two ways. It puts the armed opposition on
the defensive, because it shows them that they and Israel are
indirectly battling the same enemy -- the Assad regime.
And it reinforces
President Bashar al-Assad's dominant narrative: that the struggle in
Syria is not internal, that this is not about a domestic coalition
striving to replace authoritarianism with democracy -- but rather this
is a wider conspiracy spearheaded by Israel and its regional allies and
Western powers.
The Syrian official media has already portrayed Israel's bombings as an attempt to shore up the armed opposition and reverse the balance of power in its favor.
Although the Iranian
leadership has repeatedly stated that it would come to the aid of Syria
if it is attacked by Israel, it is unlikely that Iran or its partner
Hezbollah would retaliate directly against Israel's possible strikes.
Both Iran and Hezbollah would like to avoid a regional conflict in which Israel and its allies would have the upper hand.
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What Iran and Hezbollah
would most likely do is deepen their involvement in Syria's shifting
sands. In an emotional speech last week, Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah
top leader, stressed that al-Assad's allies will not allow Syria to
fall. Now Hezbollah and Iran would become more determined than ever to
prevent the removal of al-Assad from power.
Bluntly put, the recent
escalation of hostilities will not only prolong the deadly conflict in
Syria, but has now made it an open-ended war by proxy -- one with major
potential repercussions for regional and international security and
peace.
Israel's major goal
appears to be the establishment of a red line in Syria, whereby no
advanced weapons reach Hezbollah -- its archenemy in Lebanon. Israel's
primary audience was Hezbollah and Iran. Israel is taking a calculated
gamble that neither Syria nor Hezbollah would risk retaliation.
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There is a risk of miscalculation that could trigger a bigger clash.
Given the risks and the
dangers of a region-wide conflict, one would hope that the great powers
-- particularly the United States and Russia -- would assume their
historic responsibility and reach an understanding that begins the
process of putting an end to the deadly struggle in Syria that has killed more than 70,000 Syrians, according to the latest United Nations estimate, and caused a humanitarian disaster.
More than two years
after the breakout of the Syrian confrontation there does not seem to be
a military solution. It is a long war of attrition with no end in
sight. Neither internal camp seems to have the means to deliver a
decisive blow.
Only a political
solution will put an end to the shedding of Syrian blood and prevent the
unthinkable: a region-wide conflict that would have catastrophic
consequences.
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